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Friday, March 11, 2005

Apathy and the Family Man 

Javier Vazquez pitched 4 innings yesterday… oh well, whatever, nevermind. It's just Spring Training. The stats themselves don't matter. The amount and order of that playing time does.

KJZZ is running some audio journals from major league journeyman Adam Hyzdu, who was part of the Red Sox last year as a September call-up and is trying to make the squad once again. The journal describes the difficulties for the families of those "replacement level" ballplayers. (And Hyzdu was a 1st round draft choice.)

The journal makes you think differently about Juan Acevedo, who had a miserable outing yesterday. In a camp with 31 pitchers (and with essentially 24 of those pitchers competing for 4 slots), 5-run innings are definitely a Bad Thing if you're a non-roster invitee struggling to make the squad. I wonder how important spring training game performance is relative to performance outside those games.

Looking at that non-roster invitee list, I'm now wondering exactly how the D-Backs will find room for Kelly Stinnett and possibly Quentin McCracken, let alone anyone else, on the 40-man roster. I haven't heard of any injuries on the 40-man that would lend themselves to a stint on the disabled list (and I'm probably getting confused about DL rules here), and there's nobody who I would immediately peg as a guy to get rid of.

So I think what this means is that the players are playing as much to stay on the 40-man roster as they are to make the 25-man roster. Jason Bulger isn't competing against, say, Brandon Lyon to make the Opening Day roster; he's competing against, say, Justin Weschler to stay on the 40-man roster.

And seeing as Bulger and Weschler each have a grand total of 2 innings of Spring Training game experience thus far, I have no idea how to make that decision.

Thursday, March 10, 2005

D-Back 2005 Preview: Luis Gonzalez 

Luis Gonzalez, left field
We think his right arm is now healed
He draws walks quite well
Though his OPS fell
And against a collapse we're now steeled


There’s no getting around the fact that Luis Gonzalez is my favorite Diamondback player. 57 home runs in 2001, a World Championship 135-foot bloop single, and by all accounts, a friendly person and a good guy. So it's a little hard for me to read BP 2005 and see them projecting a fairly low VORP of 15, in part because they think he'll get even fewer plate appearances than he had in 2004. Is Gonzo really just a step away from being irrelevant to this team?
I just can't believe that, so let me outline an admittedly biased look at what might be in store for Gonzo.

To begin with, Gonzo's season 2004 season "collapsed" at the same time Richie Sexson collapsed at the plate. The hope was Sexson would provide some protection for Gonzalez, and in the small sample size of Sexson's appearances, that did appear to be the case. To show how anemic the offense was generally last year, Gonzo, even though he only appeared in two-thirds of mostly irrelevant D-Back games, ranked 8th in the National League in intentional walks (at a rate that probably would have put him at 3rd or 4th had he played a full season). So if Troy Glaus and Shawn Green are reasonably healthy (an admittedly very big if), Gonzo should get much better looks this year. (And if Glaus and Green are injured, it won't matter at all what kind of year Gonzalez has.) For what it's worth, ZIPS has him pegged at 6.4 Runs Created per 27 innings, the same as Ichiro Suzuki.

Gonzo's fielding has never been lauded, but he's not a horrible left-fielder, either, one Randy Johnson post-game discussion notwithstanding. ZIPS has him pegged as an average fielder, BP as costing 2 runs over a season.

So in the end, your confidence in Luis Gonzalez depends on your estimation of the severity of his injury and his ability to rebound from that injury. I don't have any idea what'll happen, but maybe you do. If he rebounds, he hits 25 homeuns and has an OPS of .850 or more. If he doesn't, his power numbers continue to fall and the whispers asking management to trade him begin. Those whispers would be a major distraction for a player who by virtue of his tenure with the club has a no-trade clause and much more so than any other D-Back player in their short history is the face of the club. It'll never happen, but much ink could be spilled.

Nothing To See Here, Please Move On 

Yesterday's game was notable for… let's see… apparently the game was "sun-splashed." That's all I've got.

Well, I suppose it's interesting to note that Sergio Santos is still getting time at shortstop and in spite of the fact that Melvin had said he thought Alex Cintron would be handling shortstop heading into the season, he (Alex) is still spending time at second base. Chad Tracy may not be the only young D-Back who could be on the trading block come June. Also of note: Koyie Hill got another start at catcher yesterday, which makes me think he's now definitely the front-runner for the catcher's job.

And speaking of moving on, it would appear that Christian Ruzich is the last man standing at All-Baseball, as the rest of the writers have moved on to Baseball Toaster. Same writing, new diaries. (Here's hoping Ruz can replace the talented troop of departing writers.) The head-spinning continues.

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Catching Up 

Too much info, not enough time to process (or blog) it.

First, BTF has its D-Backs' preview up. I find the preview to be more negative than most I've read -- the author takes a glass-three-quarters-empty view of the D-Backs (though not, surprisingly, of Joe Jr.), emphasizing the downside risks of the offseason moves with little view to the upside possibilities. I know the optimistic scenarios won't all come to pass, but it's not unreasonable that at least one of the injured G's has a very good season (while the others have mixed seasons).

I've put links to the wraps for Monday's and Tuesday's games below, but I want to emphasize that I don't really care much about the actual stats. The sample size is so small and the competition so variable, that it just doesn't matter. What's more important is who gets close looks and when and how they're played. For example, Brad Halsey is reportedly in the lead for the 5th spot in the rotation. He must be doing well, because he got to pitch 3 innings on Tuesday, which I think may be a first for a D-Back this spring.

So let's look at the stats for players not guaranteed a roster spot. I include the rest of the stats because it's easier than deleting -- please ignore them. I've dropped some players with minimal playing time to date.

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SB CS SF SH HBP SLG AVG
S Santos 6 11 2 4 1 0 1 3 8 1 0 1 1 0 .727 .364
C Jackson 6 10 3 4 0 0 1 2 7 0 0 1 0 1 .700 .400
S Hairston 6 10 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200
K Hill 4 9 2 2 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 .556 .222
M Williams 5 9 4 5 1 0 0 3 6 0 0 0 1 0 .667 .556
Q McCracken 5 9 0 2 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .222
C Quentin 5 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 .125 .125
C Myers 5 7 0 4 1 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 .714 .571
J Kroeger 5 7 2 2 1 0 1 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 .857 .286
A Green 6 6 1 3 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 1 .833 .500
D DeVore 4 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 .167 .167
C Snyder 3 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 .400 .200
C Ansman 3 4 1 4 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 1.250 1.000
R Abercrombie 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .000
A Zinter 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000
B Barden 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000
J Brito 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000
T Reynolds 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000

Player W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR HBP BB SO
B Halsey 0 0 0.00 2 0 0 0 0 5.0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2
M Gosling 0 1 12.46 2 1 0 0 0 4.1 9 6 6 0 0 2 4
L Cormier 0 0 2.45 2 0 0 0 1 3.2 2 1 1 0 0 1 2
C Daigle 0 0 6.00 2 0 0 0 0 3.0 4 2 2 1 0 1 1
P Stockman 1 0 3.00 2 0 0 0 0 3.0 3 1 1 1 1 4 1
B Murphy 0 0 4.50 1 0 0 0 0 2.0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1
Ed Gonzalez 0 0 4.50 2 0 0 0 0 2.0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1
J Acevedo 0 0 13.50 2 0 0 0 0 2.0 5 3 3 0 0 0 1
T Pena 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 2.0 3 3 0 0 0 3 1
J Valverde 0 0 27.00 2 0 0 0 0 1.2 3 5 5 1 0 2 0
K Tolar 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
B Bruney 1 0 6.75 2 0 0 0 0 1.1 2 1 1 0 1 2 1
J Jimenez 0 0 13.50 2 0 0 0 0 1.1 3 2 2 0 0 2 0

Admittedly there are some problems given that at-bats are shown rather than plate appearances, but I'd note that:
-- Koyie Hill's getting more playing time than Chris Snyder
-- Conor Jackson's getting a lot of playing at first base, which suggests to me that D-Backs are interested in finding out if he can handle 1B should they get an attractive trade offer for Chad Tracy mid-season
-- pitching is still hard to distinguish at this point because pitcher's injuries can really tweak playing time

*****************
Recent games

Tuesday
Batter Pos AB R H RBI
M Williams CF 4 2 3 1 (2B)
Q Mccracken LF 1 0 0 0
D Devore RF 2 0 0 0
S Green RF 3 0 1 1
J Kroeger PH 1 0 0 0
C Jackson 1B 4 3 2 1 (HR)
S Santos SS 3 0 1 0 (2B)
B Barden SS 2 0 0 0
C Ansman C 2 1 2 0
A Green 3B 2 1 1 0
C Myers 3B 1 0 1 0
S Hairston 2B 2 0 0 0

Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO HR
B Bruney (W,1-0) 1/3 1 0 0 0 0 0
B Halsey 3 1 0 0 0 1 0
J Valverde 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
J Jimenez 1 0 0 0 2 0 0

Monday night
Batter Pos AB R H RBI
A Zinter 1B 0 0 0 0
R Abercrombie LF 2 0 0 0
S Hairston LF 3 0 1 0
M Williams CF 1 1 0 0
J Kroeger RF 2 1 1 2 (HR)
C Snyder C 2 0 0 1 (passed ball)
S Santos 3B 3 0 1 0
C Myers PH 2 0 2 1 (2B)
D Uggla 2B 2 0 1 1
T Reynolds SS 3 0 0 0
J Camillo PH 1 0 0 0
J Zeringue PH 1 1 1 0
J Cota PH 1 0 0 0
(plus a whole bunch of errors)

Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO HR
M Gosling (L,0-1) 2 1/3 7 5 5 1 2 0
K Tolar 1 2/3 0 0 0 1 1 0
R Pena 2 3 3 0 3 1 0
E Gonzalez 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
P Stockman 2 2 1 1 3 0 1

Monday afternoon
Batter Pos AB R H RBI
B Barden 2B 1 0 0 0
A Green SS 1 0 0 0
C Ansman DH 2 0 2 0
J D'antona 3B 2 0 0 0
D Devore RF 1 0 0 0
C Jackson 1B 1 0 1 0
K Hill C 2 0 0 0 (passed ball)
C Quentin LF 2 0 0 0
Q Mccracken CF 2 0 1 0
J Ball CF 1 0 0 0

Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO HR
L Cormier 2 2/3 0 0 0 1 1 0
C Daigle 2 3 2 2 1 1 0
J Acevedo 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Because I'm Way Too Busy 

I'll just direct you to John Sickels' discussion of the D-Backs' prospects: "Overall, a decent system, with some quality at the top then a large mass of C+ prospects providing some depth."

Oh, and the TwinsGeek has branched out into the Kos/Sportsblogs style of blog where users can have diaries. You can check it out at Twins Territory. (Sidebar link to be changed accordingly.) John's blogging is one of the reasons I'm doing this now, so I'm interested to see how this works out for him.

I will get back to Spring Training and the preview limericks soon.

I hope.

Monday, March 07, 2005

D-Back 2005 Preview: Uh.... 

Sometimes a blogger gets busy
So much so, it makes my head dizzy
I hope there's no sorrow
I will post tomorrow
A limerick insightful and fizzy

Sorry, sometimes there's just too much going on to meet my limerick-a-(week)day goal. (No, I've not been wracking my head trying to come up with a rhyme for "McCracken" -- that one, I think I've pretty much got covered...)

More Spring Training Notes 

Oh, yeah, this is what it's like when games are played daily. Gotta run on the hamster blog wheel, go go go go GO!

Friday
Batter Pos AB R H RBI
S Hairston 2B 2 1 1 0
S Santos SS 1 1 1 3 (HR)
C Jackson DH 2 0 0 0 (2 K)
C Quentin RF 2 0 1 0
M Williams CF 1 0 0 0
A Zinter 1B 2 0 0 0
K Hill C 3 2 2 1 (HR)
A Green PR 0 0 0 0
J Brito C 1 0 0 0
D Devore LF 1 0 0 0
R Abercrombie LF 0 0 0 0
Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO HR
D Osborne 1 0 0 0 0 2 0
J Acevedo 1 5 3 3 0 1 0
E Gonzalez 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
P Stockman (W,1-0) 1 1 0 0 1 1 0
C Daigle 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
L Cormier (S,1) 1 2 1 1 0 1 0

Saturday (nothing to see, please move along…)
Batter Pos AB R H RBI
Q Mccracken CF 3 0 0 0
A Zinter PH 1 0 0 0
J Kroeger RF 1 0 0 0
C Jackson 1B 1 0 0 0
C Quentin RF 2 0 0 0
C Myers 3B 2 0 1 0
D Devore LF 2 0 1 0
S Hairston 2B 1 0 0 0
C Snyder C 2 0 1 0 (double)
C Ansman C 0 0 0 0
S Santos SS 2 0 1 0 (SB)
A Green SS 1 0 0 0
K Hill PH 1 0 0 0
R Abercrombie CF 1 0 0 0
Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO HR
O Villarreal 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
B Lyon 1 0 0 0 0 2 0
J Valverde 2/3 3 5 5 2 0 1
B Murphy 2 2 1 1 0 1 0
J Bulger 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
B Bruney 1 1 1 1 2 1 0

Sunday
Batter Pos AB R H RBI
M Williams CF 1 1 1 1
S Santos SS 1 1 0 0
C Myers DH 2 0 0 1
C Jackson 1B 1 0 1 1
A Green 3B 1 0 1 1 (double)
K Hill C 3 0 0 0 (+ passed ball)
J Kroeger RF 2 1 1 0 (double)
C Quentin RF 2 0 0 0
Q Mccracken LF 2 0 1 1 (double)
S Hairston LF 1 1 0 0
Pitcher IP H R ER BB SO HR
A Peterson 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
J Wechsler 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
S Nance 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
J Cannon 1 0 0 0 1 0 0