Friday, August 19, 2005
Perspective, Again
OK. She baked me a cake.
The Diamondbacks pounded the St. Louis Cardinals 9-2 Thursday night and once more moved to within 3 games of the San Diego Padres. The Diamondbacks had that rare trifecta of good starting pitching (Claudio Vargas, whose summer dominance is both wholly unexpected and totally appreciated), good relief pitching (3 innings with just one hit), and good offense (14 hits, including two homeruns from Gonzo). I'm ignoring those 5 double-play balls. Never happened.
So while I'm not ready to buy my playoff tickets yet (it was amusing to hear Jeff Munn talk about how Thursday night's game was the "last regular season game for the Diamondbacks here at Busch Stadium"), I guess the team has kept me interested at least through this weekend's series against the Reds, a series that the Diamondbacks have a much better shot of winning.
And, with just about a quarter of the season left to play, I thought it was worth taking a look at the remaining schedules for the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Dodgers. (Percentages are Pythagenport records as of this morning.)
Diamondbacks
3 @ Reds (.452)
4 vs. Mets (.545)
3 vs. Phillies (.516)
3 @ SD (.469)
3 vs. SF (.411)
3 @ Pittsburgh (.428)
3 @ Rockies (.383)
3 vs. Brewers (.488)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. LA (.425)
3 vs. SD (.469)
3 @ LA (.425)
3 @ SF (.411)
Non-Divisional weighted record: .490
Padres
3 @ Atlanta (.552)
3 vs. Houston (.528)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. D-Backs (.446)
4 @ Brewers (.488)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 @ LA (.425)
3 @ SF (.411)
3 vs. Nationals (.469)
4 @ Rockies (.383)
3 @ D-Backs (.446)
4 vs. SF (.411)
3 vs. LA (.425)
Non-Divisional weighted record: .475 (includes extra Rockies series, extra Rockies/SF games)
Dodgers
4 @ Florida (.523)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. Houston (.528)
3 @ Cubs (.517)
3 @ Rockies (.383)
3 vs. SF (.411)
3 vs. SD (.469)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
4 @ SF (.411)
3 @ D-Backs (.446)
4 vs. Pittsburgh (.428)
3 vs. D-Backs (.446)
3 @ SD (.469)
Non-Divisional weighted record: .472 (includes extra Rockies series, extra SF game)
For what it's worth, then, the Diamondbacks have a slightly harder row to hoe from here on out. But the difference over 5 series is worth less than a win, almost minimal. And considering that each team has home-and-home series with each of its divisional rivals, it's less than minimal. While this weekend's Reds series is obviously important, it's the Padres series 10 days from now that I'm focusing on.
The Diamondbacks pounded the St. Louis Cardinals 9-2 Thursday night and once more moved to within 3 games of the San Diego Padres. The Diamondbacks had that rare trifecta of good starting pitching (Claudio Vargas, whose summer dominance is both wholly unexpected and totally appreciated), good relief pitching (3 innings with just one hit), and good offense (14 hits, including two homeruns from Gonzo). I'm ignoring those 5 double-play balls. Never happened.
So while I'm not ready to buy my playoff tickets yet (it was amusing to hear Jeff Munn talk about how Thursday night's game was the "last regular season game for the Diamondbacks here at Busch Stadium"), I guess the team has kept me interested at least through this weekend's series against the Reds, a series that the Diamondbacks have a much better shot of winning.
And, with just about a quarter of the season left to play, I thought it was worth taking a look at the remaining schedules for the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Dodgers. (Percentages are Pythagenport records as of this morning.)
Diamondbacks
3 @ Reds (.452)
4 vs. Mets (.545)
3 vs. Phillies (.516)
3 @ SD (.469)
3 vs. SF (.411)
3 @ Pittsburgh (.428)
3 @ Rockies (.383)
3 vs. Brewers (.488)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. LA (.425)
3 vs. SD (.469)
3 @ LA (.425)
3 @ SF (.411)
Non-Divisional weighted record: .490
Padres
3 @ Atlanta (.552)
3 vs. Houston (.528)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. D-Backs (.446)
4 @ Brewers (.488)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 @ LA (.425)
3 @ SF (.411)
3 vs. Nationals (.469)
4 @ Rockies (.383)
3 @ D-Backs (.446)
4 vs. SF (.411)
3 vs. LA (.425)
Non-Divisional weighted record: .475 (includes extra Rockies series, extra Rockies/SF games)
Dodgers
4 @ Florida (.523)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. Houston (.528)
3 @ Cubs (.517)
3 @ Rockies (.383)
3 vs. SF (.411)
3 vs. SD (.469)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
4 @ SF (.411)
3 @ D-Backs (.446)
4 vs. Pittsburgh (.428)
3 vs. D-Backs (.446)
3 @ SD (.469)
Non-Divisional weighted record: .472 (includes extra Rockies series, extra SF game)
For what it's worth, then, the Diamondbacks have a slightly harder row to hoe from here on out. But the difference over 5 series is worth less than a win, almost minimal. And considering that each team has home-and-home series with each of its divisional rivals, it's less than minimal. While this weekend's Reds series is obviously important, it's the Padres series 10 days from now that I'm focusing on.
Thursday, August 18, 2005
Teetering
Working out this morning, I heard the Gin Blossoms' "Hey Jealousy," which I am nominating for Best Song Ever From Arizona. (I'm not clear who exactly is running this award, but that's an unimportant detail.) Seriously -- an incredible hook, great guitar work, and wonderful lyrics about someone who feels like a loser and desperately wants or needs love. I loved the song the first time I heard it 12 years ago, and I've loved it ever since. (You want to nominate some other song? Let me know in the comments below. Stevie Nicks doesn't count because Fleetwood Mac did all their work in LA.)
The song and its lyrics about a relationship doomed to failure spoke to me this morning as I thought about the Diamondbacks in the wake of their second straight anemic game against the Cardinals, a 5-0 loss Wednesday night. I'm trying not to get caught in the over-analysis of small sample size. Yes, it's the fourth loss in a row for the Diamondbacks, but the Diamondbacks this year have shown a repeated tendency not to go on the kind of skid the Padres suffered through (let alone one of Royalsian length). This week is starting out just like last week -- two losses in a row (while the Padres split their first two games) -- so I'm hopeful that tonight's game will be like last week, yielding a win for our team heading into a series against a team without the best record in baseball. After all, Diamondbacks ace Claudio Vargas takes the mound tonight. (Yes, I said "Diamondbacks ace Claudio Vargas," a phrase which Google has no record of. But over the past 30 days, Vargas' ERA of 1.83 is more than twice as good than any other starter.)
How many times does it take for somebody to hurt you in little (or big) ways before you move on to someone or something else? Now, clearly we're Diamondbacks fans, and so the "someone" is really the 2006 Diamondbacks, not some other team. But like that one great golf shot out of ten (or twenty, in my case), the 2005 Diamondbacks do something well just often enough to keep you hooked.
So here it is -- are the Diamondbacks going to make one final effort to go straight, or is it time to write them off?
****************
Oh, a shout-out to CardNilly, a Cardinals blog (natch) kind enough to link here. An amusing writing style -- check it out to see how the other (better) half lives.
The song and its lyrics about a relationship doomed to failure spoke to me this morning as I thought about the Diamondbacks in the wake of their second straight anemic game against the Cardinals, a 5-0 loss Wednesday night. I'm trying not to get caught in the over-analysis of small sample size. Yes, it's the fourth loss in a row for the Diamondbacks, but the Diamondbacks this year have shown a repeated tendency not to go on the kind of skid the Padres suffered through (let alone one of Royalsian length). This week is starting out just like last week -- two losses in a row (while the Padres split their first two games) -- so I'm hopeful that tonight's game will be like last week, yielding a win for our team heading into a series against a team without the best record in baseball. After all, Diamondbacks ace Claudio Vargas takes the mound tonight. (Yes, I said "Diamondbacks ace Claudio Vargas," a phrase which Google has no record of. But over the past 30 days, Vargas' ERA of 1.83 is more than twice as good than any other starter.)
How many times does it take for somebody to hurt you in little (or big) ways before you move on to someone or something else? Now, clearly we're Diamondbacks fans, and so the "someone" is really the 2006 Diamondbacks, not some other team. But like that one great golf shot out of ten (or twenty, in my case), the 2005 Diamondbacks do something well just often enough to keep you hooked.
So here it is -- are the Diamondbacks going to make one final effort to go straight, or is it time to write them off?
****************
Oh, a shout-out to CardNilly, a Cardinals blog (natch) kind enough to link here. An amusing writing style -- check it out to see how the other (better) half lives.
Wednesday, August 17, 2005
Sum Of Their Parts
Complete lyrics to "House of Jealous Lovers," by The Rapture:
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
Shakedown
House of jealous lovers
One hand ties the other
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
Shakedown
House of jealous lovers
One hand ties the other
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
1,1
2,2
3,3
4,4
5,5
6,6
7,7
8,8
Written out like that, it's not exactly William Shakespeare. It's not even Trip Shakespeare. But pulsing through the headphones from my iPod shuffle during an early-morning workout, it is a great song. (And, truly, it is -- one of the best singles from the past 5 years, dance-punk at its best.)
Sometimes things are more than the sum of their parts. Tuesday's St. Louis Cardinals, for example. Scott Seabol, a 30-year-old journeyman whose major league experience prior to 2005 consisted of a 2001 cup of coffee with the Yankees, batting 6th? Mark Grudzielanek batting cleanup? And yet, these Cardinals rapped out 15 hits against the Diamondbacks in the D-Backs' 8-2 loss to the Cardinals Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, our own Diamondbacks managed just 5 hits against Jeff Suppan and generally looked bad. I'm not quite sure what it is -- the top 6 Cardinals have a VORP of just 31.8 greater than the top 6 Diamondbacks, the equivalent 3 wins not a significant component of the 19 more wins the Cardinals have. The Cardinals looked good in every way the Diamondbacks looked bad -- getting timely hitting instead of double plays, turning two instead of turning the game as one local radio wag called it into "Kelly Stinnett Souvenir Night." Things haven't clicked much for the Diamondbacks lately. And their pitching? Currently they have a total of 55 Win Shares, or barely 18 wins attributable to the pitching staff. Now, that's still better than 2004, when the pitching staff only had 57 Win Shares for the entire year. Given that there's still a quarter of the season left to play, another 18 or so Win Shares is not unreasonable. But still, I expected the pitching staff as a whole to do better...
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
Shakedown
House of jealous lovers
One hand ties the other
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
Shakedown
House of jealous lovers
One hand ties the other
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
1,1
2,2
3,3
4,4
5,5
6,6
7,7
8,8
Written out like that, it's not exactly William Shakespeare. It's not even Trip Shakespeare. But pulsing through the headphones from my iPod shuffle during an early-morning workout, it is a great song. (And, truly, it is -- one of the best singles from the past 5 years, dance-punk at its best.)
Sometimes things are more than the sum of their parts. Tuesday's St. Louis Cardinals, for example. Scott Seabol, a 30-year-old journeyman whose major league experience prior to 2005 consisted of a 2001 cup of coffee with the Yankees, batting 6th? Mark Grudzielanek batting cleanup? And yet, these Cardinals rapped out 15 hits against the Diamondbacks in the D-Backs' 8-2 loss to the Cardinals Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, our own Diamondbacks managed just 5 hits against Jeff Suppan and generally looked bad. I'm not quite sure what it is -- the top 6 Cardinals have a VORP of just 31.8 greater than the top 6 Diamondbacks, the equivalent 3 wins not a significant component of the 19 more wins the Cardinals have. The Cardinals looked good in every way the Diamondbacks looked bad -- getting timely hitting instead of double plays, turning two instead of turning the game as one local radio wag called it into "Kelly Stinnett Souvenir Night." Things haven't clicked much for the Diamondbacks lately. And their pitching? Currently they have a total of 55 Win Shares, or barely 18 wins attributable to the pitching staff. Now, that's still better than 2004, when the pitching staff only had 57 Win Shares for the entire year. Given that there's still a quarter of the season left to play, another 18 or so Win Shares is not unreasonable. But still, I expected the pitching staff as a whole to do better...
Tuesday, August 16, 2005
Three Weeks: Loss For Words Edition
One would hope that a relaxing vacation and time off would have recharged my literary abilities so that I could discuss the National League West.
No such luck.
I'm tapped out for metaphors. My simile well is dry.
The Week That Was
Record: 2-4 (2nd place, NL West, 3 games behind San Diego)
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 5.25-6.25
Transactions: Kelly Stinnett off the DL, Michael Gosling down to Tucson (8/9); Brandon Lyon and Russ Ortiz off the DL, Koyie Hill and Mike Koplove down to Tucson (8/13).
I've always liked Koplove, and I think he's being punished for being put in situations with baserunners but he's shown too much inconsistency this season for me to quibble too much with the selection (as opposed to Bruney, Groom, or Worrell). Glad to see Lyon back, of course; the jury is still out on Russ Ortiz and his performance Saturday night was, while not a disaster, not a stunning success either.
The offense showed signs of resurgence, while the pitching was, typically, inconsistent. And the basepath management (see Terrero's hidden-ball trick and Gonzo being thrown out at the plate twice in the same game) left much to be desired. (Let's put it this way, I'm not sure I could've identified the 3rd-base coach before this week, that's how silent -- in a good way -- Tosca's work has been thus far.)
And somehow the Diamondbacks are still just 3 games behind San Diego.
The Weeks That Will Be
6 on the road (3 each at St. Louis and Cincinnati)
7 at home (4 against the Mets, 3 against the Phillies)
It certainly doesn't get any easier here in the next couple weeks. St. Louis is, of course, the class of the National League once again while the Reds aren't quite as bad as their record might suggest. Still, with Halsey, Webb, and Vargas, the team's best rotation pitchers recently, a series win, while unlikely, is not wholly unreasonable.
Last week Jim suggested that my hope the team would go 6-6 on the road trip was overly optimistic, and I can't say that he'll probably be wrong. My hope that the team might remain 3 behind the Padres is every bit as likely though, so it's a compromise position. With the Padres playing the same schedule we just finished playing (3 each at the Marlins and Braves), it's certainly not inconceivable that the Diamondbacks would end up 3 games behind the Padres by next Monday morning.
3 behind. Wow.
No such luck.
I'm tapped out for metaphors. My simile well is dry.
The Week That Was
Record: 2-4 (2nd place, NL West, 3 games behind San Diego)
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 5.25-6.25
Transactions: Kelly Stinnett off the DL, Michael Gosling down to Tucson (8/9); Brandon Lyon and Russ Ortiz off the DL, Koyie Hill and Mike Koplove down to Tucson (8/13).
I've always liked Koplove, and I think he's being punished for being put in situations with baserunners but he's shown too much inconsistency this season for me to quibble too much with the selection (as opposed to Bruney, Groom, or Worrell). Glad to see Lyon back, of course; the jury is still out on Russ Ortiz and his performance Saturday night was, while not a disaster, not a stunning success either.
The offense showed signs of resurgence, while the pitching was, typically, inconsistent. And the basepath management (see Terrero's hidden-ball trick and Gonzo being thrown out at the plate twice in the same game) left much to be desired. (Let's put it this way, I'm not sure I could've identified the 3rd-base coach before this week, that's how silent -- in a good way -- Tosca's work has been thus far.)
And somehow the Diamondbacks are still just 3 games behind San Diego.
The Weeks That Will Be
6 on the road (3 each at St. Louis and Cincinnati)
7 at home (4 against the Mets, 3 against the Phillies)
It certainly doesn't get any easier here in the next couple weeks. St. Louis is, of course, the class of the National League once again while the Reds aren't quite as bad as their record might suggest. Still, with Halsey, Webb, and Vargas, the team's best rotation pitchers recently, a series win, while unlikely, is not wholly unreasonable.
Last week Jim suggested that my hope the team would go 6-6 on the road trip was overly optimistic, and I can't say that he'll probably be wrong. My hope that the team might remain 3 behind the Padres is every bit as likely though, so it's a compromise position. With the Padres playing the same schedule we just finished playing (3 each at the Marlins and Braves), it's certainly not inconceivable that the Diamondbacks would end up 3 games behind the Padres by next Monday morning.
3 behind. Wow.
