Friday, March 04, 2005
D-Back 2005 Preview: Shawn Green
Shawn Green was acquired by trade
From the Dodgers for whom he had played
Five pretty good years
But observers have fears
That his skills have greatly decayed
That Shawn Green is a decent guy, there seems to be no question. The question from most fans was why the D-Backs would want to spend $30 million ($20 million if you count the $10 million they got from the Dodgers) for 3 years of declining production from an injured player when they could potentially get the same production (particularly in 2006 and 2007) for pennies on the dollar with Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson.
BP 2005 and ZIPS have slightly different takes on Green, I think. BP thinks he'll have an OPS of about .850, but project his VORP at 24.7. ZIPS, on the other hand, projects an OPS of about .890 and puts his total Runs Created at 20th in baseball and Runs Created/27 outs in the top 30.
The optimist in me says his uptick in production at the end of the 2004 season means he'd finally recovered from shoulder surgery in the 2003 offseason and that he might just come close to producing enough over the contract's lifetime so that the $20 million net cost to the D-Backs isn't laughable. I mean, he just raked in 2001 and 2002; anything near that, and we'd be very happy. So I choose to go with ZIPS.
The pessimist hopes Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson are more patient than I would be, because he's going to be hitting .250 with 20 home runs and a .750 OPS, plus below-average defense, for the next 3 years.
From the Dodgers for whom he had played
Five pretty good years
But observers have fears
That his skills have greatly decayed
That Shawn Green is a decent guy, there seems to be no question. The question from most fans was why the D-Backs would want to spend $30 million ($20 million if you count the $10 million they got from the Dodgers) for 3 years of declining production from an injured player when they could potentially get the same production (particularly in 2006 and 2007) for pennies on the dollar with Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson.
BP 2005 and ZIPS have slightly different takes on Green, I think. BP thinks he'll have an OPS of about .850, but project his VORP at 24.7. ZIPS, on the other hand, projects an OPS of about .890 and puts his total Runs Created at 20th in baseball and Runs Created/27 outs in the top 30.
The optimist in me says his uptick in production at the end of the 2004 season means he'd finally recovered from shoulder surgery in the 2003 offseason and that he might just come close to producing enough over the contract's lifetime so that the $20 million net cost to the D-Backs isn't laughable. I mean, he just raked in 2001 and 2002; anything near that, and we'd be very happy. So I choose to go with ZIPS.
The pessimist hopes Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson are more patient than I would be, because he's going to be hitting .250 with 20 home runs and a .750 OPS, plus below-average defense, for the next 3 years.
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