Tuesday, December 21, 2004

Randy Johnson Unaware of Blogger Making Up Fake Stories 

Paradise Valley, AZ -- Randy Johnson today said he'd never heard of Random Fandom, the Diamondbacks blog which has avoided talking about the 10-person trade involving Johnson and instead posted silly fake news stories. Sources close to Johnson said… ah, never mind.

Look, with this report (thanks to Rob for the heads up), the 10-player deal seems on its way to completion.

So I might as well chime in with a few thoughts. Essentially I view the deal this way:
Penny for Johnson
Green for Bautista (yeah, I know he's not actually in the trade, but bear with me here)
Brazoban for Koplove
plus a minor leaguer (Wheeden)

Why do I include Bautista? Because if you include Bautista, the salaries work out about equal -- around $20 million per year. Do the players?

Penny for Johnson: Based on last year's win shares, we can expect to lose about 9 Win Shares, assuming that both pitchers are healthy for a full season.
Green for Bautista: Gain of 4 Win Shares
Brazoban for Koplove: Gain of 6 Win Shares

So, on net, what does this deal do? If everybody remains healthy, it keeps the team's record the same and we get a minor leaguer. On net the players are slightly younger. But the injury risk seems higher. Oh, yeah, and the Yankees are the odds-on favorite to win the World Series in 2005.

When I put it that way, I guess I don't like the deal. And that's before I look at 2006, in which a contract extension for Shawn Green removes any of the nice side benefit of having a cheap Brad Penny for one more year.

I mean, really, who expected the D-Backs to gain salary in a Randy Johnson trade?

By the way, expect updates to be sparse to non-existent through the weekend. Enjoy the holidays.

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